To paraphrase the Beatles “they get high with a little help from their friends”

Anything that makes housing affordable would also remove a significant amount of wealth from the elderly, who outvote and (I think) out donate other demographic groups.

Pretty hard thing to do politically.

I think I watched that 8 or ten times, thank you.

I dunno, I think especially in older generations, the earnest conversation is something to be avoided at all costs. For my dad, that’s just how he was raised and I think his worst nightmare would be talking about feelings or something.

So take that and then put a hobby/passion that clearly means a lot to your folks and yeah, those can really combine in unfortunate ways.

Personally, when we’re not talking politics (my parents’ version of sports) I will sometimes throw more serious or interesting questions at mom (as said, dad hates that so I don’t push) and sometimes get interesting answers. It’s effort and mostly a one way street but I try to remember they’re not from a super healthy emotional era and even if they might at times be open to it, it does not come naturally to them (or me if I’m being honest.)

Don’t know if that early morning ramble helps but I hope it does.

Thanks, I appreciate that! And yup, definitely told that a few times.

Forgot a lighter which has so far led to 2 weddings and 5 kids?

In the first week of school, a buddy and I wandered around with beer and joints to various dorms but forgot a lighter. Asking around for one, we made a new friend. Fast forward a couple years, “new friend” let me know about a home for rent opening up. I rounded up some folks (including original buddy) and we rented it. Except one guy was gone for the summer. So, a gal came from out of town to live with there. We became friends, she fell in love and ended up moving here. Between her, her best friend and sister they’ve had 5 kids with partners mostly from that original friend circle.

So, if I had remembered a lighter way back in first year, we wouldn’t have put a house of folks together, wouldn’t have met gal and her pals and thus a few weddings and kids would’ve happened differently or not at all.

Can’t wait for the Republicans to hold the Senate, block every part of this budget and have everyone blame Biden because politics are too complicated.

I’ve read they’ve been dropped, haven’t seen a response from Silver. Is this a social media thing?

Edit: Though if your trying to argue that polling is inaccurate because Nate Silver has an issue with what his former outfit is doing, ooooooooh boy.

That’d be as dumb as saying rockets don’t actually wor because, most of the scientists who did the pioneering work were working for the literal Nazis!

You should try stomping around the room and yelling at the screen.

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Polls are shit. Only one poll counts.

If Clinton had paid attention to them, trump might not have won.

Even the article you posted has a self-inserted bias.

With what part do you disagree? They post all the methodology and results. Or are you just “this person works in polling so I can’t trust them despite them laying out everything for me to see!”

You haven’t presented a logical thought just “I DISLIKE POLLS” which is pretty silly.

You may not like what the polls say but that doesn’t mean they aren’t valid kiddo. As you grow up, you’ll realize that lots of things that are unpleasant are still true no matter how much we wish otherwise. Throwing a tantrum doesn’t change the validity of polling.

This sounds like a you problem.

If you got your news from non social media and looked at polls, not punditry, you’d have known the most likely outcome was pretty much what happened, the Republicans won a narrow majority.

Don’t blame polling for your ignorance.

Edit: If you want an interesting (okay, interesting to nerds like me) recounting of the polling in 2022:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

This is like when conservatives deny climate change because it is unpleasant.

Why do you think the polls were pretty much dead on for the 2022 midterms? Just blind luck?

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I’m not young but I still missed out!

For all I care, they’re being manipulated by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

This is the silliest MAGA style conspiracy nonsense…

You not understanding polling doesn’t mean they are disinformation, that’s a ridiculous thing to say. Or, maybe just like now, you dismissed information that you disliked and as such had another misinformed understanding of things.

Polling aggregators like 538 said that trump had a 1/3 chance of winning and the thing about 1/3 chances is that they happen about 1/3 times!

And then trump damn near won 2020 and lost by under 12,000 votes in one state. You can’t get much closer than that!

What a goof.

If you read the article, how were you possibly confused as to what OP was talking about?

Anyway, like OP said, people have said they were going to leave if W won, if trump won in 2016 etc. Guess what? No real surge in migration either of those times. But sure maybe THIS time they mean it.

As long as almost every pollster is wrong, sure you’ve got a point.

What isn’t true, specifically? I’m curious to hear what you think is “never true.”

Have you uhhh, looked at the article headline? There’s a pretty obvious and specific claim. That, as OP pointed out, has been claimed for many presidencies including the last time trump won.

The one upside of trump beating a deeply unpopular Biden would be it might give JT the impetus to acknowledge reality and move on.

From most polls I’ve seen, the US public still generally backs Israel. Crucially, the voting public who, unlike our loud and demonstrative progressive wing, actually shows up to vote, tend to support Israel.

And we had options to help, it just required us to vote in the primaries (2016, 2020) despite not being a tik tok trend or whatever. Sanders wanted to cut military spending but the online and very vocal progressive wing didn’t show up and vote for him.

It’s sort of like not staying fit, eating poorly and not sleeping well and then wondering why you got hurt when you tried to play a sport with your healthier friends. These things take work/showing up well before they become a critical issue.

Holding us hostage by… progressive voters choosing not to show up in the primaries.

Admittedly, bitching online is much easier and doesn’t involve leaving the house but still…