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Cake day: June 7th, 2023

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  • I doubt there would be much. Iran is almost as dependent on Russia as Israel has been on the US. There would be some token diplomatic protests, but I doubt it would be anything more than signaling. Countries don’t have friends, they have interests. Iran’s interests are far better served by Russia than by supporting Palestine.

    Hamas’s entire strategy in launching their attack was to provoke Israel to overreact, which would then prompt Palestinian allies like Lebanon and Iran to get involved. The first part worked beyond their expectations, but Iran and Lebanon haven’t taken the bait.




  • Definitely not Iran, but Russia and China are definitely possibilities. The only reason it seems impossible is that Israel has been a US satellite since it’s founding. If that tie is severed, what’s possible changes.

    There are three real powers in the Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Two are in the US sphere, and one is in Russia’s. Russia would live to pull ahead, and China desperately wants a solid foothold in the region.

    Russia specifically would see a lot of tangible benefits. Israel has a top-notch defense industry with many technologies that Russia is missing. Protecting “the Jews” would also play into Russia’s narratives about fighting Nazis in Ukraine and elsewhere.


  • The US has been pressuring Israel to spare civilians since before they went into Gaza. That’s just reality. They haven’t followed the disastrous strategies that critics have demanded for exactly the reasons I explained.

    Netanyaho is a far right maniac who’s popularity was based entirely on national security and who was facing multiple criminal allegations. There was no way that he wasn’t going to go hard into Gaza. The US could have pulled all aid and weapons deals on day one, and it wouldn’t have changed a damn thing - except that Israel would now be a Russian satellite state.

    Ramping pressure over time is/was the best available strategy. That doesn’t mean I think the US did everything right. That doesn’t mean that Biden’s personal positions on Israel aren’t deeply troubling.

    I’ll say it again. You got exactly the resolution you were demanding, and exactly the result that people like me said you would get from it. Take the L and learn something.


  • The ceasefire vote passed, and just like everyone predicted it will have zero impact on the genocide in progress. The only impact it has was to further limit the ability of the US to pressure Israel to not advance into Rafah. You got your resolution, and now the situation is worse. Yet, here you are doubling down.

    I totally appreciate (and share) your zeal in wanting the slaughter to end (assuming that is actually your objective), but this development clearly illustrates the deep flaws in this kind of criticism, and how little you understand about foreign policy and negotiation tactics.

    The US has one negotiation point left to keep Israel out of Rafah, and that’s the weapons. Once that is played, the only other choice would be to allow the genocide to continue, or intervine militarily. Thankfully the US didn’t play that card already, and the Biden administration is sending clear signals to Israel that it’s on the table.

    Israel has other options for aid and weapons, but they only become viable if the relationship with the US is severed. Once that happens, Palestine is done.

    BTW: Abstaining from the vote was, if anything, kissing Putin’s ass, not Netanyaho. There were sticking points between Russia and the US, and the US blinked. Anyone who actually followed the negotiations would understand that abstaining means the US decided the resolution was too important to hold up over specific language.

    This is very similar to the last such resolution to pass. Russia and America couldn’t agree on language, so both agreed to abstain. This time, Russia got their way while the US took the high road.


  • I can totally understand why you get non-answers to that non-question. I never said I was scared of Kamala. However, she came in close to dead last in the primary, and could very well end up being a Democratic presidential nominee after having been roundly rejected. I object to having the choice of US President whittled down to right-wing Satan and a tool of the oligarchs before we ever get to vote.

    From the beginning of the 2020 primary, Kamala was clearly the establishment’s first choice, with all the establishment friendly publications putting out glowing praise daily. Biden was the backup who went from almost last (excepting Harris) to first place overnight when every single establishment friendly candidate suddenly dropped out and endorsed Biden. It was a brilliant strategy by establishment, but was more of a manipulation than a democratic victory.

    Elizabeth Warren staying in even long after she had no chance was also extremely sus. She suddenly dove under the radar, but kept her hat in the ring to split the progressive vote until Bernie was done. There is no rational explanation except that she was motivated to sink Bernie by some carrot or stick from the establishment.

    So no, after that circus of a primary, I’m not willing to hand over potentially four Presidential terms to the establishment.

    Kamala is also a terrible candidate with an abysmal track record and zero charisma. Every word she says sounds like it came from a focus group and was delivered by a robot. Even as a token black woman, she is deeply unpopular with blacks, especially those in the civil rights movement. (I support promoting minorities in government, but If they don’t represent their groups with policy in addition to appearance then they are just a token.)


  • The DNC can list whoever they want there

    Well, yes, but they want Biden there.

    The last three elections they’ve picked geriatric unpopular candidates and refuse to listen to voter feedback.

    Those candidates were picked by voters, so this isn’t exactly true. They just lead voters by the nose through establishment bias in mainstream media.

    The one place where I think this is true is with Kamala Harris. She solidly lost the 2020 primary, yet there is a chance that she will be the one to finish a Biden second term, and they will try to skip her next primary because they will call her an incumbent. That is the eventuality that we should be preparing to fight right now. The battle to replace Biden for 2024 was a worthy one, but we lost.

    “vote blue no matter who” is fucking you

    Did I say that? The second we have a red candidate that’s better than a blue one, I’m voting red. Third party strategies will fuck me worse.

    1. The DNC needs voters more than voters need the DNC.

    Meaningless drivel with no practical strategic relevance. It would be awesome if we could form an ideal party and get most Democratic voters to switch, but that’s a childish fantasy.

    then Biden spent a bunch on a write in campaign and bragged he “won”.

    Getting the most votes as a write in is pretty impressive honestly. The real scandal is that the DNC put a swing state in jeopardy to favor a deeply red state just to create a harder path for progressives. Hang them with that.

    But I’m blocking right after I send this.

    Whatever.