He doesn’t have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn’t count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457Biden didn’t win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn’t count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That’s it.
Now, since we aren’t pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Without vote by mail, they won’t show up to the same degree. Trump’s vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That’s not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Biden can’t win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
I’ve been watching and it’s absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don’t see how that can be right.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
it’s still too early to call bro polls aren’t accurate this far from November bro
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he’s only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It’s fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can’t talk about these issues while there’s still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn’t want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it’s like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he’s a completely different person off camera
I really don’t think it will be enough this time. And it’s fucking terrifying
Wasn’t Biden on Seth myers literally last night?
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven’t watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it’s not.
Didn’t have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn’t visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it’s more than I thought we’d get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
Keep in mind that it’s still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You’re right…
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn’t capable of campaigning for a long time…
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it’s not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
Yes, everyone knows with a capable, young, intelligent, and capable candidate, the trick is to hide them to the last second as a surprise.
So then hiding Biden has nothing to do with his lack of ability.
This is totally normal!
That’s why no one is bothering to talk about the election right now and political stump speeches and advertising doesn’t start till Halloween.
Saying things like “Well, they’re totally different off camera” sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn’t happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates…
Neither are doing primary debates, and there’s no way a general debate happens.
We won’t see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they’ll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn’t have to debate.
In Trump’s case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It’s tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I’d be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
Meanwhile Biden is losing support, so it doesn’t matter if trump just stays the same.
Biden only has 4% on Biden in the 18-34 demo, which is a lot more about Biden’s inaction than trump.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/26/biden-trump-gen-z-millennial-poll
The danger has never been trump gaining voters, it’s that Biden is so shit and ignoring the majority of Dem voters that it might depress turnout so much Trump’s base could be enough like it was in 2016.
People only turn up to vote against something… that’s the real problem Biden has. Th old say ‘you run using poetry, you govern using prose’, is apt. Ironically it’ll be the anger over Gaza, that will keep the Democratic base home, and if Trump wins he’ll claim half of Gaza for himself.
That’s like saying a shit sandwich is the most popular meal, and not mentioning there’s nothing else to eat.
Lots of people don’t turn up to vote, they want something to vote for.
That’s how Obama won red states his first election
We’re in an era of populism and people are still trying to use the 2000s era to predict today.
He doesn’t need to wide. his base, he just needs to motivate them. He need to to get more people excited about voting for him than Biden does those excited to vote Biden.
It’s about turnout and driving a base. He’s wiping the floor with Biden right now in the polls. No one is excited to vote Biden. It’s not clear to me he even has a base. Instead taking heads are just trying to browbeat any one left of center into supporting Biden. It won’t work at scale. Bidens got to do his own work there, because it’s not currently Trump in office, it’s Biden. Always harder for an incumbent, especially one who has become deeply unpopular with the coalition of voters that out him into office. No amount of blue no matter who is going to fix Biden as a candidate. Only Biden can do that.
Biden and the DNC know that
It’s just what excites voters pisses off big money donors. And they picked the side neoliberals are always going to pick.
And they’re hoping the threat of trump is enough to scare the serfs into line.
From a psychology perspective, it’s a horrible plan. Especially after it has a 50% success rate in the last two elections. 2024 is a coin flip, and it’s only because we’re using trump as an excuse to run someone who’s first presidential primary was 2 generations ago.
Seriously. A person born the year of Bidens first primary could safely be a grandparent for this one. In some red states, a great grandparent already.
He’s never been a popular candidate, just had the luck of getting the primary handed to him and getting to face the literal worst president we’ve ever had the general.
Mean while, blue no matter who out here downvoting like this isn’t the case.
Blue no matter who has proven to be a failed strategy in that it leaves you with weak indefensible candidates in competitive elections.
Were probably going to get Trump, and it will be 💯 due to Democrats and the Blue No Matter Who coalition. But just like Hillarys shocking arrogance in 2016, these ass holes will yet again fail to understand that they themselves are the problem.
It’s not arrogance … it’s that the voting maps are rigged. Democrats win the popular vote.
Hillary Clinton, was and is, one of the most singularly arrogant politicians to have ever existed.
She opted out of campaigning in the entirety of the rust belt, because it was ‘her turn’.
She viewed voters as obligated in voting for her. She was wrong. Dead wrong.
